BNOW.NET · Russia · trade-evasion watch
Mirror-trade & evasion watch
Russia's customs service stopped publishing in January 2022. We reconstruct its trade from partner-country reports— what transit hubs say they export to Russia. When a hub's exports of dual-use goods jump far above their pre-war baseline with no domestic-demand basis, it signals rerouting. 31 partner-good series currently flagged.
Flagged dual-use flows (rerouting suspects)
| transit hub | good | 2021 | 2024 | multiple | signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Vehicles | $4.3B | $25.5B | 5.97× | 6.0× baseline ($4.3B→$25.5B) |
| United Arab Emirates | Electrical machinery & electronics | $732M | $2.4B | 3.29× | 3.3× baseline ($732M→$2.4B) |
| United Arab Emirates | Telecom equipment | $676M | $2.1B | 3.1× | 3.1× baseline ($676M→$2.1B) |
| Kazakhstan | Machinery & mechanical appliances | $10K | $996M | new | appeared: $10K→$996M since 2021 |
| United Arab Emirates | Machinery & mechanical appliances | $127M | $785M | 6.17× | 6.2× baseline ($127M→$785M) |
| Kazakhstan | Electrical machinery & electronics | $892K | $637M | new | appeared: $892K→$637M since 2021 |
| United Arab Emirates | Computers | $38M | $491M | 12.9× | 12.9× baseline ($38M→$491M) |
| China | Machine-tool parts | $45M | $227M | 5.02× | 5.0× baseline ($45M→$227M) |
| China | Aircraft / drones | $31M | $208M | 6.77× | 6.8× baseline ($31M→$208M) |
| Kazakhstan | Vehicles | $85M | $253M | 2.98× | 3.0× baseline ($85M→$253M) |
| United Arab Emirates | Vehicles | $56M | $166M | 2.98× | 3.0× baseline ($56M→$166M) |
| United Arab Emirates | Aircraft / drones | $73M | $167M | 2.29× | 2.3× baseline ($73M→$167M) |
| Kazakhstan | Computers | $9K | $71M | new | appeared: $9K→$71M since 2021 |
| Georgia | Vehicles | $7M | $68M | 9.24× | 9.2× baseline ($7M→$68M) |
| Kyrgyzstan | Machinery & mechanical appliances | $2M | $54M | new | appeared: $2M→$54M since 2021 |
| Kyrgyzstan | Vehicles | $28M | $79M | 2.8× | 2.8× baseline ($28M→$79M) |
| Kazakhstan | Telecom equipment | $333K | $43M | new | appeared: $333K→$43M since 2021 |
| Armenia | Aircraft / drones | $0K | $21M | new | appeared: $0K→$21M since 2021 |
| Kazakhstan | Integrated circuits (chips) | $2K | $16M | new | appeared: $2K→$16M since 2021 |
| Türkiye | Telecom equipment | $118K | $14M | new | appeared: $118K→$14M since 2021 |
| Armenia | Vehicles | $862K | $13M | new | appeared: $862K→$13M since 2021 |
| Kyrgyzstan | Integrated circuits (chips) | $0K | $10M | new | appeared: $0K→$10M since 2021 |
| Kazakhstan | Machine-tool parts | $429K | $11M | new | appeared: $429K→$11M since 2021 |
| Serbia | Vehicles | $6M | $16M | 2.55× | 2.6× baseline ($6M→$16M) |
| Kazakhstan | Aircraft / drones | $30K | $7M | new | appeared: $30K→$7M since 2021 |
| Türkiye | Computers | $76K | $7M | new | appeared: $76K→$7M since 2021 |
| Kyrgyzstan | Telecom equipment | $423K | $7M | new | appeared: $423K→$7M since 2021 |
| Türkiye | Machine-tool parts | $2M | $5M | new | appeared: $2M→$5M since 2021 |
Total reconstructed exports to Russia
| transit hub | 2021 (pre-war) | 2024 | change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | $67.2B | $115.3B (2024) | 1.72× |
| Kazakhstan | $4M | $9.5B (2024) | — |
| United Arab Emirates | $1.5B | $4.5B (2023) | 3.1× |
| Türkiye | $174M | $164M (2022) | 0.94× |
| Armenia | $3M | $7M (2024) | — |
| Serbia | $2M | $372K (2024) | — |
| Georgia | $0K | $197K (2024) | — |
| Kyrgyzstan | $3K | $25K (2024) | — |
Source: UN Comtrade (official database) — partner-reported goods exports (flow X) from each listed hub (reporter) to Russia (partner M49 643), annual HS-code series 2021–2024 · last fetched 2026-07-06. Query shape: Comtrade documentation. Mirror data lags ~2–3 months and only ~30% of country-pairs mirror cleanly; figures are estimates of actual flows, not exact — the standard mirror-statistics approach used in public sanctions research.