BNOW.NET · Russia · trade-evasion watch
Mirror-trade & evasion watch
Russia's customs service stopped publishing in January 2022. We reconstruct its trade from partner-country reports — what transit hubs say they export to Russia. When a hub's exports of dual-use goods jump far above their pre-war baseline with no domestic-demand basis, it signals rerouting. 38 partner-good series currently flagged.
Flagged dual-use flows (rerouting suspects)
| transit hub | good | 2021 | 2024 | multiple | signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Vehicles | $4.3B | $25.5B | 5.97× | 6.0× baseline ($4.3B→$25.5B) |
| United Arab Emirates | Electrical machinery & electronics | $732M | $2.4B | 3.29× | 3.3× baseline ($732M→$2.4B) |
| United Arab Emirates | Telecom equipment | $676M | $2.1B | 3.1× | 3.1× baseline ($676M→$2.1B) |
| Türkiye | Machinery & mechanical appliances | $836M | $1.9B | 2.28× | 2.3× baseline ($836M→$1.9B) |
| Armenia | Electrical machinery & electronics | $12M | $926M | 76.12× | 76.1× baseline ($12M→$926M) |
| Kazakhstan | Machinery & mechanical appliances | $128M | $996M | 7.77× | 7.8× baseline ($128M→$996M) |
| United Arab Emirates | Machinery & mechanical appliances | $127M | $785M | 6.17× | 6.2× baseline ($127M→$785M) |
| Kazakhstan | Electrical machinery & electronics | $123M | $637M | 5.18× | 5.2× baseline ($123M→$637M) |
| Armenia | Telecom equipment | $188K | $501M | new | appeared: $188K→$501M since 2021 |
| Armenia | Vehicles | $10M | $463M | 48.11× | 48.1× baseline ($10M→$463M) |
| United Arab Emirates | Computers | $38M | $491M | 12.9× | 12.9× baseline ($38M→$491M) |
| Armenia | Machinery & mechanical appliances | $15M | $312M | 20.37× | 20.4× baseline ($15M→$312M) |
| China | Machine-tool parts | $45M | $227M | 5.02× | 5.0× baseline ($45M→$227M) |
| China | Aircraft / drones | $31M | $208M | 6.77× | 6.8× baseline ($31M→$208M) |
| Kyrgyzstan | Machinery & mechanical appliances | $2M | $175M | new | appeared: $2M→$175M since 2021 |
| Kazakhstan | Vehicles | $89M | $253M | 2.85× | 2.9× baseline ($89M→$253M) |
| United Arab Emirates | Vehicles | $56M | $166M | 2.98× | 3.0× baseline ($56M→$166M) |
| United Arab Emirates | Aircraft / drones | $73M | $167M | 2.29× | 2.3× baseline ($73M→$167M) |
| Armenia | Computers | $2M | $86M | new | appeared: $2M→$86M since 2021 |
| Kazakhstan | Computers | $848K | $71M | new | appeared: $848K→$71M since 2021 |
| Kyrgyzstan | Electrical machinery & electronics | $6M | $60M | 10.37× | 10.4× baseline ($6M→$60M) |
| Kyrgyzstan | Vehicles | $28M | $82M | 2.9× | 2.9× baseline ($28M→$82M) |
| Georgia | Vehicles | $18M | $68M | 3.74× | 3.7× baseline ($18M→$68M) |
| Kazakhstan | Telecom equipment | $2M | $43M | new | appeared: $2M→$43M since 2021 |
| Armenia | Aircraft / drones | $0K | $21M | new | appeared: $0K→$21M since 2021 |
| Armenia | Integrated circuits (chips) | $2K | $16M | new | appeared: $2K→$16M since 2021 |
| Kazakhstan | Integrated circuits (chips) | $246K | $16M | new | appeared: $246K→$16M since 2021 |
| Kyrgyzstan | Integrated circuits (chips) | $6K | $14M | new | appeared: $6K→$14M since 2021 |
| Türkiye | Machine-tool parts | $3M | $15M | new | appeared: $3M→$15M since 2021 |
| Kazakhstan | Machine-tool parts | $429K | $11M | new | appeared: $429K→$11M since 2021 |
| Türkiye | Computers | $330K | $10M | new | appeared: $330K→$10M since 2021 |
| Serbia | Vehicles | $6M | $16M | 2.55× | 2.6× baseline ($6M→$16M) |
| Kyrgyzstan | Telecom equipment | $445K | $7M | new | appeared: $445K→$7M since 2021 |
| Kyrgyzstan | Computers | $371K | $6M | new | appeared: $371K→$6M since 2021 |
| Kazakhstan | Aircraft / drones | $2M | $7M | new | appeared: $2M→$7M since 2021 |
| Türkiye | Telecom equipment | $514K | $5M | new | appeared: $514K→$5M since 2021 |
Total reconstructed exports to Russia
| transit hub | 2021 (pre-war) | 2024 | change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | $67.2B | $115.3B (2024) | 1.72× |
| Kazakhstan | $7.0B | $9.5B (2024) | 1.36× |
| Türkiye | $5.8B | $8.6B (2024) | 1.48× |
| United Arab Emirates | $1.5B | $4.5B (2023) | 3.1× |
| Serbia | $996M | $962M (2024) | 0.97× |
| Kyrgyzstan | $392M | $822M (2023) | 2.09× |
| Georgia | $610M | $680M (2024) | 1.11× |
| Armenia | $794M | $7M (2024) | 0.01× |
Source: UN Comtrade (official database) — partner-reported goods exports (flow X) from each listed hub (reporter) to Russia (partner M49 643), annual HS-code series 2021–2024 · fetched between 2026-09-02 and 2026-10-02. Query shape: Comtrade documentation. Mirror data lags ~2–3 months and only ~30% of country-pairs mirror cleanly; figures are estimates of actual flows, not exact — the standard mirror-statistics approach used in public sanctions research.